Infrastructure as a strategic priority (roundtable ‘From Energy Transition to Energy Security’ – part 1)

July 6, 2026

^{This report was originally written in Dutch. This is an English translation}  

In part 1 of the roundtable report ‘From Energy Transition to Energy Security’, the participants discuss how infrastructure has become a strategic priority. They examine energy security, geopolitical dependencies, the expansion of investment opportunities and the conditions under which long-term investments in the energy transition remain attractive.

By Hans Amesz

In recent years, the focus has shifted from the energy transition to energy security. What does that mean for the priorities of European infrastructure investment over the coming decade?

Mark Gilligan: ‘In 2021, Europe was dependent on Russia for a large proportion of its oil and gas supplies. These days, the US is the main supplier. Until about a year and a half ago, this could still be interpreted as a shift from an adversary to an ally, but that is now less clear-cut. This does show, however, that it is in Europe’s long-term interest to continue accelerating the transition to renewable energy. Last year marked a turning point, as wind and solar energy in Europe outperformed fossil fuels in electricity generation for the first time. Nevertheless, we are still faced with a core problem in our energy strategy, namely that we cannot produce wind turbines, solar panels and batteries cheaply ourselves. We will have to form alliances with China and the United States to strive for the strategic autonomy that comes from decoupling from fossil fuels.’

Albena Vassileva: ‘Given what is happening in the world, we are increasingly realising that we must supply energy safely and at affordable prices. At present, actively investing in new ways of supplying energy is the best thing we can do as asset managers. At the same time, however, the existing energy infrastructure must also be managed effectively. After all, the system is not yet ready for fully renewable and entirely domestic production. How can we encourage the new as much as possible, whilst at the same time remaining good stewards of what already exists?’

Ita Demyttenaere: ‘It’s not just about building more renewable capacity. We need a much broader view of what energy security entails. This also focuses on the grid, interconnectors, storage and all such matters. The question we must ask before investing is not only whether it is low-carbon, but also whether it is resilient and whether the costs are stable.’

Joost Bergsma: ‘For the first time in a long while, Europe is actually on a path of energy growth. That presents choices: how are you going to fuel that growth? Are you going to use gas, nuclear energy or electricity? But if you look at factors such as security, affordability and sustainability, clean energy is in fact the winner on all three counts. You can see that Europe is really stepping up its commitment to clean energy and moving away from gas.’

How have geopolitical tensions and supply chain dependencies changed the way pension funds and insurers view infrastructure investments?

Marco van de Geugten: ‘There is certainly a trend towards focusing more on Europe. Apart from investments in renewable energy and the energy transition, there is an expansion into other parts or sub-sectors within infrastructure, such as the electrification of transport or district heating. These are sectors that historically were not considered part of the energy transition, but are now included in the new context.’

Bart van Merriënboer: ‘My clients aren’t necessarily keen to chase every new idea or follow the very latest trends, but they are open to them and very willing to invest, for example, in batteries – which didn’t exist two years ago but are now everywhere. I think the largest energy storage capacity worldwide lies in hydroelectric power stations. Hydropower may currently be less accessible for many investors to invest in, but the willingness to do so is certainly there.’

Jocelyn Dioux: ‘To give an example: the integration of energy projects with a battery storage system – or Battery Energy Storage System, BESS for short – in Spain has only recently become economically viable, because until recently the balance between risk and return was not yet right. Thanks to the sharp fall in BESS capital expenditure, this is now economically viable, which is good news for relieving the strain on the electricity grid.’

Igor Lukin: ‘Even before the challenges posed by Covid, the war in Ukraine and further geopolitical uncertainty, affordability, security of supply and decarbonisation were already playing a major role in the energy transition. I think there was a strong focus on the decarbonisation side of the “energy triangle” – comprising security of supply, affordability and decarbonisation. Particularly since the start of the war in Ukraine, the aspects of security, supply and decarbonisation have become more closely intertwined.’

Vassileva: ‘We have a highly diversified portfolio in the energy sector and are making huge investments in new renewable energy infrastructure. At the same time, we also hold traditional energy assets. We see that very responsible investments can be made in these without necessarily compromising our own ambitions, whilst also promoting healthy systems.’

Lukin: ‘Investors must be very cautious and analyse the system costs and affordability for the end user. You need to consider what the energy system might look like in the future from a systemic perspective, without relying solely on electrification, for example. Six or seven years ago, the idea was that everything would become 100 per cent electrified. It has since become clear to all of us that the system will not function in that way and that, in the future, we will see a combination of green electricity and green molecules.’

Do investments in energy security lead to better portfolio diversification and greater protection against price falls, or do they primarily result in greater complexity and associated policy risks?

Bergsma: ‘When we began the transition to clean energy some fifteen years ago, it was strongly driven by the government. This incentive has worked well: the costs of producing new solar energy, new onshore wind energy, new offshore wind energy and now also new battery storage have fallen, and the barriers to entry have been lowered. The good news is that the new feed-in tariffs being introduced by governments now actually operate on a market basis, or are very close to it, so the system costs for the end user are not that high. We are seeing a healthy private-sector consumption market that is very robust. However, governments do need to intervene from time to time, simply to take the pressure off the market in certain sectors.’

Van de Geugten: ‘For us as infrastructure investors, long-term, stable cash flows are important. If the market is too volatile or not mature enough to deliver them, a government scheme can help to remove some of the commercial risk for investors.’
 

We will need to forge alliances with China and the United States in order to strive for that strategic autonomy.

 
Van Merriënboer: ‘Adding investments in energy security reduces portfolio risk and provides additional diversification due to the lower correlation with equities during geopolitical shocks and with credit spreads during periods of rapidly rising inflation.’

How do geopolitical tensions, supply chain dependencies and changing regulations influence return expectations and assumptions regarding the financing of energy infrastructure?

Demyttenaere: ‘In our view, these forces increase the spread in both risk and return. Assets that align with national security objectives may benefit from subsidies, faster permitting processes or scarcity. At the same time, concentration in the supply chain, tariffs, local regulations, delays in grid connections and regulatory changes increase execution risk. Underwriting must therefore become more conservative, for example through a thorough understanding of counterparties, and reliable long-term contracts combined with proven technologies.’

Roger Pim: ‘The pace of change is accelerating. In today’s world, you have to be cautious, be a specialist, and, to put it simply, expect the unexpected. In many of our projects, we work alongside government bodies, local planning experts, contractors and suppliers. The fact that we maintain long-term relationships and have extensive experience contributes to smooth project management and helps to mitigate certain risks. One of the major changes we are seeing is a growing awareness at government level of the importance of infrastructure for clean energy. This can assist with planning and give investors confidence regarding long-term support. As regards dependency within the supply chain, current geopolitical tensions can pose challenges. It is therefore all the more important to capitalise on relationships and keep multiple options open to prevent critical bottlenecks or risks.’

Bergsma: ‘Bear in mind that the supply chains for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar energy differ considerably. Wind turbine manufacturers are still predominantly European. That enables you to diversify somewhat at that level. Due to the pass-through of lithium price risk, we have opted to work with Chinese suppliers on longer-term agreements, particularly for solar panels and battery storage.’
 

The pace of change is accelerating. In today’s world, you need to be cautious, be a specialist, and expect the unexpected.

 
Lukin: ‘I think you need to think much more carefully about what sort of risks you analyse during your due diligence and examine much more closely how things might come back to haunt you later, because infrastructure is, by its very nature, a long-term business: you can’t change it quickly.’

Gilligan: ‘In a sense, we’ve doubled down on a single supplier, and that’s in line with the overall strategy. But it means that infrastructure owners on the GP side are becoming increasingly sophisticated and adopting a much longer-term perspective on managing their business risks and maintaining long-term relationships, through which they are making a significant difference in reducing risks in the supply chain.’
  

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