Payden & Rygel: Hyperscalers quarterly capex
Long-term rates rose again last week. One reason is higher oil prices. But another is that U.S. economic growth remains remarkably resilient despite a series of shocks.
And we know why: continued AI-related capital expenditures from hyperscalers. Total tech spend is on track to surpass $800 billion in 2026. Will it persist? While investors have expressed skepticism about the sustainability of capex-driven growth, we've heard similar fears for three years running. Instead, capex expectations keep getting revised up, and actual spending keeps outrunning expectations.
Oracle's earnings last week reaffirmed a $90 to %85 billion capex plan for fiscal year 2027, up 70% from last year. The motivating factor? The company reported a 121% year-over-year revenue growth in cloud infrastructure. In aggregate, latest estimates suggest that hyperscalers plan to spend 30% more on capex in 2027, more than enough to keep fueling growth.
Would a rate hike this week slow the investment boom? Probably not. Lured on by strong revenue growth, the investment cycle could continue even with higher interest rates.