Swissquote: Nvidia at a discount!

November 12, 2026

The Nasdaq-100 rebounded 2.28% as enthusiasm for artificial intelligence pushed some uncomfortable thoughts about interest rates, AI financing, falling cash flow levels and Jensen Huang’s relationship with a suspected spy into the background. Inflation hasn’t disappeared. Neither have the risks of tighter monetary policy and a slower AI buildout, nor the massive spending and increasingly questioned financing. But investors certainly found something else to look at.

Alas, things got worse again after the bell as another report emerged about CEO Jensen Huang. This one alleged another affair, this time with a company executive, while reports suggested that the board was considering ousting him. Nvidia’s share price fell as much as 10% in after-hours trading and settled near $159 per share, more than 8% below its closing level.

Again, I don’t have a model for Jensen risk, but the reports have coincided with substantial losses in the company’s market value.

Zooming out, Nvidia was struggling with intensifying selling pressure before the allegations surfaced. The shares were trading above $243 in early October, and some analysts have significantly pulled back their support: Morgan Stanley removed the company from its Top Pick list, and a Baird analyst cut his price target from $500 to $200 per share—that’s a big swing.

Today, Nasdaq futures are lower as Nvidia weighs on sentiment. Nvidia accounts for around 7% of the Nasdaq-100’s index weight, meaning that a 10% fall in its share price would pull the index down by around 0.7 percentage points, all else equal! Meanwhile, the Kospi is giving back more than 1%, and the TAIEX—home to TSMC, the company that manufactures Nvidia’s chips—is down by around 2.80%. The Chinese STAR 50, on the other hand, is enjoying a nice rebound, up 2.15% at the time of writing, on hopes that Nvidia’s woes could increase demand for local chips.

How cheap has Nvidia become ahead of next week’s earnings? Is this week’s carnage an opportunity to buy?

At $159 per share, the stock trades at around 17 times expected earnings for the fiscal year ending this January, and just 10 times earnings expected for the following year. That looks remarkably inexpensive—provided those earnings materialise. That second number assumes earnings growth of roughly 71%. Is that feasible? I think it is. For comparison, analysts expect earnings to grow around 95% this fiscal year.

So the forecast actually assumes a slowdown, and it is plausible. The underlying revenue forecast is ambitious: roughly $691 billion next fiscal year, compared with $412 billion this year. That’s about $279 billion of additional sales. Is it achievable? Potentially, yes, given the company’s track record. Is it already secured? That’s where investors need reassurance and the question becomes whether it would be achievable without Jensen Huang.

That’s part of the risk investors take when buying Nvidia at a discount! There is no credible way to put a precise revenue loss on his departure. Customers buy Nvidia’s computing power, software and networking ecosystem, and those advantages wouldn’t disappear with its CEO. The risk would be disruption to strategic decisions, product execution and customer relationships over time—don’t laugh, please.

Performing a scenario analysis on the earnings risk: if next fiscal year’s earnings came in 20% below today’s forecast, the stock would trade at around 12.5 times those reduced earnings at $159. A 30% shortfall would lift that multiple to roughly 14.3 times. These are stress scenarios, not predictions of what Huang’s departure would cause, but they show that the current price leaves some room for disappointment.

So, is this week’s carnage a buying opportunity? Potentially, yes.

Next Tuesday, investors expect quarterly revenue of around $109 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.47 per share, both up about 90% from a year earlier. The expectations remain impressive. Therefore, a strong quarter alone may not be enough to revive appetite, but the tumbling share price could offer an opportunity for those willing to buy the dip.

Zooming out, Nvidia’s troubles are reinforcing the rotation towards non-tech stocks this morning. European indices are set for a positive start as the macroeconomic backdrop offers some encouragement. Oil prices are down, with US crude trading near $86 per barrel and Brent crude near $92. Cheaper oil is helping to slow the bond selloff triggered by Tuesday’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. But Japan reported a higher-than-expected 7.1% year-on-year rise in October producer prices, and tomorrow’s US PPI numbers will be closely watched, potentially giving investors another reason to cement their rate-hike expectations.

So my take is that tech sentiment will remain volatile in the coming days. Yesterday, Anthropic’s upcoming IPO suddenly changed sentiment—and the headlines. Today, before the US market opens, Nebius—another neocloud company—will release earnings. Rotation towards non-tech stocks could continue as capital leaves technology stocks. Some investors could also sell their tech holdings to make room for next week’s Anthropic IPO. As I wrote yesterday, the rotation trade could run into hawkish central bank expectations, while cheaper energy prices could offset part of that pressure. But here, crack spreads also matter for inflation. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Waller stressed earlier this week, greater crude availability doesn’t resolve refining-capacity constraints, so refined-product prices may not fall as quickly as crude prices. That means inflation risks remain. So the hope is that Anthropic will make investors forget all these worries.